Coffee prices surged higher in January, with the monthly average of the ICO composite indicator price at its highest level in four months. The recent publication of official Brazilian production estimates for crop year 2014/15, which is due to start in April, suggests that output could fall for the second consecutive crop year, giving an initial forecast of between 46.53 and 50.15 million bags. This uncertainty over the 2014/15 crop, exacerbated by notably dry weather in some coffee‐producing regions, has given support to coffee prices over the last month.
Based on the information currently available, total production for crop year 2013/14 is provisionally estimated at around 145.8 million bags, representing a slight increase on the 145.1 million bags produced in 2012/13. Finally, total exports in calendar year 2013 amounted to 108.9 million bags, down 1.8% on calendar year 2012.