Christina Sponza

Coffee prices surged higher in January, with the monthly average of the ICO composite indicator price at its highest level in four months. The recent publication of official Brazilian production estimates for crop year 2014/15, which is due to start in April, suggests that output could fall for the second consecutive crop year, giving an initial forecast of between 46.53 and 50.15 million bags. This uncertainty over the 2014/15 crop, exacerbated by notably dry weather in some coffee‐producing regions, has given support to coffee prices over the last month.

Coffee prices suffered further declines in October 2013, with the prices of all four group indicators sliding rapidly over the course of the month. The monthly average of the ICO composite indicator price now stands at its lowest level since March 2009, and the severe downward trend observed over the last two years shows no sign of slowing.