Coffee prices surged higher in January, with the monthly average of the ICO composite indicator price at its highest level in four months. The recent publication of official Brazilian production estimates for crop year 2014/15, which is due to start in April, suggests that output could fall for the second consecutive crop year, giving an initial forecast of between 46.53 and 50.15 million bags. This uncertainty over the 2014/15 crop, exacerbated by notably dry weather in some coffee‐producing regions, has given support to coffee prices over the last month.
Coffee prices have fallen consistently over the course of 2013, with decreases recorded in nine out of the last twelve months. Although prices in December rose slightly compared to November, the ICO composite indicator is still at its second‐lowest level of the year, and 2013 recorded the lowest average annual price since 2009.
The ongoing deterioration of coffee prices steadied slightly in November, but the monthly averages of all the ICO indicator prices remain at multi‐year lows. The ICO composite indicator price averaged 100.99 US cents/lb, 5.6% lower than October and the lowest monthly level in six and a half years.
Coffee prices suffered further declines in October 2013, with the prices of all four group indicators sliding rapidly over the course of the month. The monthly average of the ICO composite indicator price now stands at its lowest level since March 2009, and the severe downward trend observed over the last two years shows no sign of slowing.
Coffee prices slipped further in September 2013, with the ICO composite indicator falling 4% to its lowest level since April 2009. The sharpest decline was observed in Robustas, which dropped by 6.6% to their lowest monthly average in nearly three years. At the end of coffee year 2012/13, total production is estimated at 145.2 million bags, 9.6% higher than the previous year. A decrease is estimated in the production of Other Milds, mostly due to damage from coffee leaf rust in Central America, although this has been more than compensated by increases in the other three coffee groups, especially Colombian Milds.
Coffee prices continued to slide in August, despite a brief bounce atthe beginning ofthemonth. The monthly average of the ICO composite indicator price dropped to itslowest level in nearly four years, as did the monthly averages of the three Arabica group indicators.